Should You Buy Now or Wait in Austin, TX?
Pre-filled with Austin's median home price of $820,000, a typical rent of $3,600/month, and a 2.1% property tax rate. Adjust the rate and price assumptions to see whether buying now or waiting comes out ahead.
Your situation
Negative = you expect prices to fall before you buy.
Waiting comes out ahead over 7 years
By $149,797 in net worth
🏠 Buy now — net worth at year 7
$371,088
⏳ Wait 18mo — net worth at year 7
$520,885
Break-even price
6.6%/yr
Break-even rate
—
Rent while waiting
$66,196
Waiting is ahead by $149,797 at year 7
Waiting ends with $520,885 in net worth — $149,797 more than the alternative — and holds up across a reasonable range of rate and price assumptions. Waiting only pulls ahead if prices move below about 6.6%/yr during the wait.
- ›Shortening the wait from 18 to 6 months cuts the $66,196 of rent you'd otherwise burn before owning.
- ›Waiting only pulls ahead if prices move below about 6.6%/yr during the wait.
⚡ Waiting 18 months means $66,196 paid in rent with no equity to show for it.
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The Austin market and the timing decision
Austin home prices roughly doubled from 2019 to 2022 before cooling significantly. The combination of a high property tax rate and a market that has recently corrected makes the break-even analysis especially important to run with current, not historical, numbers.
Texas has no state income tax, a major driver of the tech and finance sector relocation Austin has experienced since 2020, though the 2.1% property tax rate is among the highest in this list and meaningfully affects ongoing ownership costs.
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Educational content only — not financial advice
Local price, rent, and tax figures are estimates for Austin, TX and will differ by neighborhood and property. Future mortgage rates and home prices cannot be predicted. Consult a qualified mortgage, financial, or real estate professional before making a home-purchase decision.