Should You Buy Now or Wait in Phoenix, AZ?
Pre-filled with Phoenix's median home price of $420,000, a typical rent of $1,950/month, and a 0.6% property tax rate. Adjust the rate and price assumptions to see whether buying now or waiting comes out ahead.
Your situation
Negative = you expect prices to fall before you buy.
Waiting comes out ahead over 7 years
By $61,031 in net worth
🏠 Buy now — net worth at year 7
$191,834
⏳ Wait 18mo — net worth at year 7
$252,865
Break-even price
4.8%/yr
Break-even rate
—
Rent while waiting
$35,856
Waiting is ahead by $61,031 at year 7
Waiting ends with $252,865 in net worth — $61,031 more than the alternative — and holds up across a reasonable range of rate and price assumptions. Waiting only pulls ahead if prices move below about 4.8%/yr during the wait.
- ›Shortening the wait from 18 to 6 months cuts the $35,856 of rent you'd otherwise burn before owning.
- ›Waiting only pulls ahead if prices move below about 4.8%/yr during the wait.
⚡ Waiting 18 months means $35,856 paid in rent with no equity to show for it.
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The Phoenix market and the timing decision
Phoenix's combination of relatively low property taxes and significant new-construction supply has made it one of the more buyer-favorable large metros in recent years, though water availability is an increasingly relevant long-term consideration for the region.
Arizona's flat 2.5% state income tax is among the lowest of any state with an income tax, and the state's property tax rate (0.6% in this calculator) is well below the national average — a favorable combination for buyers.
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Educational content only — not financial advice
Local price, rent, and tax figures are estimates for Phoenix, AZ and will differ by neighborhood and property. Future mortgage rates and home prices cannot be predicted. Consult a qualified mortgage, financial, or real estate professional before making a home-purchase decision.